Next Stop: Jordan

For Iran, Jordan is the gateway to Mecca and the Prestige that goes with it

The Iranian attack on a US base in Jordan and the killing of three soldiers and wounding of scores others makes Jordan officially another front against the West.  We have written about Jordan as a key strategic asset for Iran as it is the gateway to both Israel and Mecca – with the destruction of the former and the capture of the latter putting them at the center of the Islamic world.    There is nothing more prestigious to the middle-eastern Moslem than hurting or destroying Israel and controlling Mecca-  its holiest city.

The war in Gaza is going slowly, but going Israel’s way although Blinken’s constant hectoring of Israel to supply Hamas with food and fuel  (yes, well over 60% of the “humanitarian” aide to Gaza is in fact military aide to Hamas and the rest Hamas sells to the Gazans) is making the war slower and probably bloodier. Both Qatar and Iran would love the continued presence in Gaza of Hamas and are using the hostages as a way to force an Israeli surrender there.  Sadly, the Blinken State Department is not willing to give Israel the clear message it needs that only the destruction of Hamas is acceptable.   Not to blame only Blinken and State on this as many Israeli opposition figures (members of Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid most prominently) have called for a cessation of fighting in order to get the hostages back.  Many defeatist ex-generals (of the if I am not there it can’t be going well type) has also joined the chorus. As long as Hamas hears this from the US and Israel they will not surrender and will not release any hostage. 

Iran already controls Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – with the exception of the bases of their main ally, Russia (and the Turks who are in part of Syria fighting the Kurds).  The presence of a few US bases in Syria and Iraq is their only real opposition and attacks there are for the most part going unanswered.  It is safe to say that, at least according to Iran, they have won in Syria and Iraq and are just using their proxies to “mop up”.     In Yemen, the US is finally getting annoyed at the Houthis but instead of destroying their military capabilities the US has been using pinprick strikes and have been begging China to convince Iran to convince the Houthis to lay off  their control over the main waterway to the Suez Canal.

This leaves Jordan as their next key target as they try to encircle both Israel and Saudia Arabia.  People have been focusing on Saudi oil as the true prize but the Islamic Republic of Iran understands that Saudi prestige in the Moslem world comes from their control of Mecca.   Jordan has been repelling Shiite attacks from Syia and have even attacked with aircraft.   The attack on US bases has raised the level of Iranian determination and has embarrassed the Hashemite Kingdom.  A US response that does not do major damage to Iranian military facilities, let alone a US withdrawal from bases in Jordan would be a blow to the Kingdom and could lead to its downfall via civil war between the supporters of the King and his opponents.   The supporters are mainly the Bedouin officers in the armed forces and the opposition are a combination of a Moslem Brotherhood offshoot and the Palestinian population there (a majority).  The Iranians would be sure to exploit any instability in Jordan to extend their influence and threaten both Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Iran would then have  Israel threatened on three sides (assuming Hamas survives – two sides, if not) and soon will have Saudi Arabia threatened on two.   They have a strategy in place while the US and the West only have harsh statements.  

The US response to the Iranian attack will now set the tone for the war, going forward.  If the US doesn’t hold Iran responsible for the death of three of its soldiers by directly attacking the Iranian Revolutionary Guards but instead looks again to “send a message” this war will get bloodier. 

Jordan is now in Iran’s crosshairs.    Its less than 1,000 kms (600 miles) from Jordan to Mecca (Makkah on the map).