Israeli Options in Iran

Four Main Targets for the IDF

Yesterday’s incredibly noisy and expensive attack by Iran on Israel caused little property damage and just one death.  A man from Gaza, resident illegally in Jericho, is there are rumors that he is currently arguing his case in the heavenly court to be counted as a ‘shahid’ and be given at least a part share in the 72 virgins which he certainly feels is his prize.   Will the Palestinian Authority gives his family terrorist support money even though he was killed by the Jihad itself?    Hard questions.

Less hard to answer is what Israel’s response should be.  The goal as we have been stating ad nauseum should be to create a situation where the Iranian opposition can topple the Islamic Republic of Iran and return the country to some semblance of normalcy.  That will change the equation in the middle east and help turn the tide against the Axis in their fight against what is left of the West.  China will no longer get oil at a steep discount; Russia will lose its source of drones and other weapons and they will lose a market for their own weapons.  Most important, the West will get an actual “win”.   A diplomatic solution is not in the best interests of anyone other than the Axis.  

There are four areas that Israel needs to target in its response to the 181 missile attack.  Here they are in order of importance – keeping in mind that the goal is to provide an opportunity to topple the regime.  Of course, the first attacks will probably be Iranian radar and air defenses but after that is done, here are the prime targets.

1.      Degrading Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRG) military capabilities by destroying their main bases in Iran, Iraq and Syria with the goal of killing the maximum number of IRG officers and soldiers as possible. The IRG is the Islamic regime’s SS.  They are the most ruthless and most dedicated Jihadis and are what protects the regime from being overthrown.  Besides the international terror they plan and execute – sometimes on their own and sometimes via proxies – they control large swaths of the Iranian economy including the oil refineries.   Every barrel of oil they sell brings dollars to the IRG coffers.  By taking out even their junior officers and the units they command will leave the regime weakened against internal opponents – including in the regular Iranian military.  A vastly weakened IRG could mean a civil revolt and maybe a coup by the professional army.

At a minimum Israel should destroy as many of the missile launch sites that are within reach.  Some missiles are fired with mobile launchers but the large ones seem to come from a limited number of heavily fortified sites.   The IRG released photos of these last Spring  - if they are real or just propaganda, Israel probably knows.

2.      Nuclear Sites- while this may be number one on most people’s lists, I think it is secondary to degrading the IRG’s military might since the nuclear site without the IRG and the Islamic regime is not an immediate threat.  But assuming that it will take time for the regime to fall even if Israel is successful in vastly weakening the IRG, no Israeli leader can ignore the short time necessary for the Islamic Republic from producing their first nuclear weapon (if they haven’t already).  The nuclear site is also a symbol in the Moslem world and a source of pride for the Islamists in Iran.

Many people may not understand that the Iranians look down upon the Arabs. Qassem Sulemani, who the US under Trump took out, was known to call Arabs derogatorily as “dessert people”.   In addition to the Sunni-Shiite divide, Iran considers itself racially superior to its Arab co-religionists (remember that Iran is from Aryan) and the destruction of the nuclear site will cause them shame in the Moslem world. 

This destruction of the site(s) will cause a further weakening to the Islamist regime.  A main issue though is if Israel has the capabilities to carry out this attack.  Does degrading the facilities do enough to be worth the effort?

3.      Oil Refineries – As we stated above, Iran’s oil refineries are the main source of income (besides the Biden-Harris release of $10 billion to them) for the regime in general and the IRG in particular. This will also cause a rift with China as this is a source of cheap oil for China since Biden-Harris turn a blind eye to the discounted selling of sanctioned oil by Iran to China.   China then will have to purchase its oil on the open market and the price of oil, currently around $71/barrel would be sure to skyrocket if China was to need to buy all of its oil on the open market.

An advantage in this is that they are easier targets than Nuclear or missile sites and these could be in the initial wave in order to get an offensive “win”.

4.      Iranian Navy – This would be a longer term effort but the Iranian Navy, controlled by the IRG, is vulnerable to attack.  Israel needs to systematically destroy the bulk of the navy as it is a main weapon of power for the Islamic regime.  Truthfully, this should have started back in April.  Containing Iran to the Persian Gulf would severely weaken its global reach.   This is more a US and Western concern then an Israeli one, but even if the Islamic regime survives everything else, it is important to limit its reach sea access to the Persian Gulf.  This would allow the United States to limit what Iran can send out of the Gulf.

What will Israel actually do? 

The reports leaked here to the press concentrate on bombing the nuclear site and the oil refineries, but the IRG missile sites would surely have to be on their main target list, too.   As for the Navy, unfortunately Israel in general and the IDF in particular underestimate naval power.  Only lately, with the need to protect the natural gas fields in the Mediterranean has Israel started to pay attention to increasing its own naval power.   I don’t expect Israel to target the Iranian Navy, but stranger things have happened.

The main wild card in all of the this is the United States.  While it does not seem likely that Biden has veto power over Israel anymore (see Independence?) there is talk that the US wants a part in the retaliation.  If so and if the US takes on the Iranian nuclear sites then that would be a great contribution to regional and global peace.  If however the goal of the Biden-Harris administration is once again to limit damage to the Islamic Republic, then Israel should politely say, no thanks.  The third possibility is for the US and allies to provide logistical, intelligence and defensive support – that seems most likely and would be most welcome.  

When will the attacks happen?  The joke going around is that Israel will wait until after everyone returns home from their Rosh Hashanah (New Years) dinner Wednesday night.  The truth is that for intense operations like this preparation time is necessary.  Jets have to be refitted with the proper munitions and intelligence needs to be updated.   Air defenses need to be replenished.   

Sometime in the next week, Biden-Harris’s dreaded “escalation” should occur, and the world will be a better place for it.

Shana Tova- Happy New Year to all.