Iran, China and the Future of this War

A Lingering War Will Bring China and Iran Closer

In the previous two Iranian attacks on Israel most of the targets were military while in the current attacks, civilians are targeted almost exclusively. In spite of the advanced air and civil defense systems in place – including not only anti-missile and drone systems but also bomb shelters that have been in place since Israel’s founding – rockets get through and Israelis are getting killed.

Geopolitically, China is now involved in the war by re-supplying Iran. There are reports of multiple Chinese supply planes flying over Turkmenistan and turning off their transponders as they approach Iranian air-space, avoiding detection as they land at air bases in eastern Iran. While Israel has air superiority – dominance – in western Iran, it is not present at all in the vast eastern part of the country. China can resupply Iran via direct air and rail links or even indirectly via Pakistan – which shares a border with Iran. Pakistan has actually announced that they are resupplying Iran.

The fact that the west in general and the United States in particular have taken, so far, no offensive responsibility in the war means that it will drag on for weeks longer that it needs to. The longer it goes on the more China will come involved in the Iranian cause and the more difficult it will be to end the war in conditions favorable not only to Israel but to the United States, too. Iran’s close relations with Venezuela, Cuba and even Brazil under the current government should have American war planners as nervous as the presence of Chinese bases and ports on South America’s west coast.

President Trump threatened that if US bases were attacked the US would hit Iran hard. Now that American bases in Iraq have been (unsuccessfully) attacked by Iran and its proxies via drone attacks and the US has still not responded, means that the United States is continuing the Biden policy of restraint that helped lead us to where we are now. Showing Iran (and China) that an attack on an American base is not an attack on America allows both free reign in maneuvering themselves to positions of strength in the middle east, in the Indo-Pacific and even in the Western Hemisphere.

Dilly-dallying in response to attacks will just make the war longer. There will be no international pressure on Iran and they, like Hamas will be counting on pressure on Israel to stand down. Israel will not be able to stop since Israel cannot allow a nuclear Iran -even one that is wounded. If the war lingers Iran might be able to develop and exploded a device while the war is going on. What to do if Iran, like Russia, threatens nuclear retaliation?

Where do we stand now? Israel is continuing its attacks on nuclear and military installations and is taking out Iran’s military leadership. These attacks are during the day and night and from the reports we are getting are mostly done by jet fighters and drones. Each flight is risky in spite of air dominance. As far as we know there have been no Israeli missile attacks. While Israel has not invested heavily in long range missiles it does have some as evidenced by an attack on Yemen a week or two ago.

If the US sits on the side offensively, what would an escalation by Israel look like? We can assume that Israel’s own nuclear option is off the table so the systematic destruction of Iran’s civilian infrastructure could be next. The problem with that strategy is that Iran does not really care about the well-being of its people so, unless it causes a successful revolt and overthrow of the government it will not lead to their defeat. As a matter of fact, the Islamic Republic, as will all Islamist fanatics, there is no concept of losing. See how Hamas can hang on despite the killing of all its leadership and the destruction of so many buildings in Gaza.

The only way forward, without US help is to continue the destruction of Iran’s military forces – nuclear and conventional. This would focus on its missile program but with China and Pakistan resupplying them and the fact that they will continue to fight even if they can only send one or two missiles a day, Houthi style, this will be yet “forever war”.

We don’t know what if any agreements were reached between the US and Israel, but we will repeat our belief that a nuclear armed Islamic Republic of Iran will threaten not only American “interests” in the middle east, but the American homeland itself. A now official Chinese proxy, Iran will not stand down in any Chinese-US confrontation in the South China Sea – they will be expected to harass American forces where ever they can and, threaten the American homeland via their allies in South America.

If this turns into a “forever war” it will be the fault of all US administration for the past two decades who declared it official US policy that Iran will not be a nuclear power. It was not a promise to only to Israel and America’s Gulf allies, but also to the American people. What unilateralists don’t understand is that fanatics never stop where they are. There is never enough power and enough territory for them to say – we are now satisfied and don’t need to fight anymore.

Ideological and religious fanatics like the Nazis, Soviets and Islamists are never happy when there is still a part of the world not under their domination. And by domination they don’t mean that they can make money off you. Rather, domination for fanatics means that they can make you act and think as they want you to. There is no victory until the fanatics are defeated totally. That does not mean of course that a utopian nirvana awaits the defeat of the current set of fanatics – rather it means that you can now use the temporary peace to prepare for the defeat of the next set, sure to come.

The McGovernite-Carlson wing of the Republican party, which insists that the world wants peace and only internationalist US behavior causes war, not only ignores and revises history, it ignores the reality of the world around them. As the war progresses and lingers China will see in Iran the perfect ally for testing its weaponry and weakening America.