Gaza After the War
Examining a Fresh Solution to a Seemingly Intractable Problem
There are so many things that will change once this war is over it is difficult to know where to start. One thing we know is that geo-politics will change.
The post-cold war foreign policy of the United States and the West (including Israel) has been filled with a utopian arrogance (on both the right and the left) that has led us to where we are now. On the right Bush’s noble but doomed nation building attempt in Afghanistan and Iraq as left us in a worse position in both those countries than before that quixotic attempt (albeit with added mismanagement by his successors). On the left Obama’s invitation to Russia to return to the middle east (negating Henry Kissinger’s brilliant ouster of the Soviets in the post-1973 world) as well as his attempt to find a Moslem country to “counter” Israeli power has created the Russian-Iranian axis, who, along with China and North Korea threaten the international order. In the case of Iran specifically, the never ending appeasement, the refusal to deal with its missile and terror programs or the destruction of its nuclear program and the $6.5bn gift to Iran just last month has led directly to our situation today.
That is not to relieve Israeli’s military and political leadership of responsibility, but as a famous anti-Semite has said, this didn’t happen in a vacuum – albeit a quite different vacuum than he thought.
And what about the Palestinian issue in general and Gaza in particular? This will also change although not in a way that most Israeli politicians and commentators have suggested and certainly not in the way Biden and the old Obama crew desire – a Palestinian state in all of the West Bank and Gaza. This is now over. Any attempt to analyze the current situation by using facts instead of wishes will lead to the elimination of the Palestinian Authority (PA) as the future leaders of the Palestinian Arab population. Yesterday, Israel’s head of the opposition, called for placing the PA in charge of Gaza after war showing he has no understanding of the current situation and is as stuck in the old-think as was the current government and Army General Staff until the morning of October 7. It is as if Lapid does not know that the PA’s control of Palestinian cities on the West Bank - Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm and others- has led to their becoming hotbeds of terror. PA control means more corruption, more terror and more misery.
So, where do stand in Gaza? What needs to be done there?
Just as Israel is fighting with the WWII goal of total defeat or unconditional surrender, Gaza must end up like Germany after the war and be divided into occupation zones. After Hamas’s defeat or surrender and the destruction of all tunnels a new order must arise in Gaza. Just as Israel is fighting with WWII goals of unconditional surrender or total defeat, the WWII endgame must also be followed.
Much as defeated Germany forfeited 13% of its territory to its neighbors after the war, Gaza will forfeit to Israel control of the northern and eastern border areas. About 4-6 kilometers in the north and 2-3 in the east will become be a closed military zone where only Israeli military personnel will be allowed. No civilians – not Palestinians and not Israelis will be allowed in this area. Anyone entering who is not in the Israeli military will be assumed to be an enemy combatant and will be treated accordingly. There will be no civilian crossings al all between Gaza and Israel and therefore no more contact between Gazans and Israelis.
The southern Rafah border area will be controlled by Egypt. This should be about 2-5 km’s and Egypt can decide if they will allow Gazan civilians to live there. They may decide to populate it with Egyptians or only with Egyptian military personnel. There will be civilian border crossings where Gazans can have access to the rest of the world. Egypt will control the border including all exports and imports.
The rest of Gaza will be divided into 3 zones, each controlled by a different Arab country. The Gazans can choose to return to their homes and rebuild them or to find asylum in any Arab or Moslem majority country. Israel, Europe, the US and Canada should not accept any Gazan refugees. There is no reason to allow yet more anti-Semites into these Western countries. This is a problem that the Islamic world will have to solve on its own. They have ignored it for 75 years and the time has come for them to solve the last post-WII refugee problem left.
European refugees were settled in all parts of Europe and Anglo countries. In the Indian subcontinent refugees from all over were resettled away from their original homes after bloody wars in 1947-48. Jewish survivors of the Holocaust went to Israel, the United States and Western Europe. Jewish refugees from Arab lands (expelled in 1948 after centuries living there) went mostly to Israel and France. Only the Palestinian refugee problem remains and that is because no Arab country (with the exception of Jordan, which was part of Mandatory Palestine anyway) agreed to take any Palestinian Arab in – except as part of refugee camps. This must end. In order for the occupation zones to work properly, all “refugee camps” and the UN infrastructure must be dismantled. UNRWA needs to be de-funded by the UN as it has been a center of corruption, hate and violence since its inception. Each of these three occupation zones, which will be home to 100% of Gazan civilians who chose to stay. It will be the responsibility of the Arab occupiers to build up the Gazan economy and provide all essential services. All commerce will have to flow through Egyptian controlled Rafah.
The coastal line will be controlled by the Israeli Navy. No commerce will come from the sea to Gaza. The Arab world can build a new sea and airport in Sinai at El-Arish to facilitate trade between Gaza and the world. The wealthy Arab oil states can pay rent to Egypt for the right to operate these ports and Egypt can control the security to make sure there is no Hamas/Moslem Brotherhood/Iranian influence there.
The solution to Gaza cannot follow the failed formulas of the past – be they settling Jews in Gaza or establishing the Palestinian Authority there. After a certain number of years of occupation by the three Arab states plus Egypt, each government can decide if they want to hand over control to the local dignitaries or to maintain their occupation. The northern and eastern buffer zones will remain under Israeli control forever. There is no need for a nation-state or a half-nation-state in Gaza. Many of you will say “this won’t work” or the “Arab states won’t allow it”. Well – all past ideas have led to this. It is time the Arab world be forced to do what they have never done. It is time to stop appeasing them and lying to their own and the Palestinian people. There will be no Palestinian Arab state west of the Jordan River and there will be no destruction of Israel. If they won’t do this voluntarily it needs to be imposed upon them.