Foreign Policy Challenges in the Trump Era

Trumpian Foreign Policy Presents Opportunities for Israel

It may last for only 2 years or 4 or 12, but the Trump era of US foreign policy is here now. We wrote of the Trump Doctrine and A New Paradigm for a non-Polar World both of which described a world where US power would not be used as it was in the post WWII or even the post-Cold War periods but where US allies – those that helped further US interests, would be given diplomatic and material support to conduct operations, military or otherwise that also forward the interests of the US and its allies. We wrote of new or extended regional alliances of US allies (we wrote Western, but it is not clear that besides the US there is another real power for freedom) which would combine with US industrial, economic, technological and military might to keep free countries, free.

Vice President JD Vance’s trip to Europe and Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Israel and Europe have further demonstrated that nothing should be taken for granted in US foreign policy besides the promotion of freedom as understood not in Cambridge, Massachusetts but in the words and actions of those who are fighting against the forces of autocracy, be they in the streets of the UK or Iran, and in the promotion of US interests.

It will take awhile for all countries to adapt to the new arrangement and to decide if they want to be part of it or not. The UK or France or Spain may decide that their interests do not coincide with America’s or that they want no part of a new Trumpian alliance. The same may be for countries such as Egypt or Turkey. There are countries that may want to remain outside the US orbit and inside the Chinese or Russian sphere of influence. They will be treated as enemies or at the least as “unfriendlies” of the United States. Countries like India should fit in perfectly with the new Trumpian foreign policy as they are neither interested in being a Chinese province nor a Western ally where its internal politics are constantly criticized.

That is one aspect of the USAID decimation by DOGE that has been overlooked. The (hopeful) end of most of USAID means an end to US intervention in the domestic politics of America’s allies. It used to be the CIA that destabilized countries but that job moved to the State Department in general and USAID in particular. Israel’s anti-government protests were almost certainly partially funded and supported by the US government as yet another attempt to overthrow the elected Israeli government. US government involvement in Israeli elections is well known and this too, should end. India, Israel and much of “new Europe” should profit from this Trumpian foreign policy.

But even for countries like Israel, India, Poland, Argentina and others that currently fit in nicely with the new American view of the world, there are challenges that if met, will lead to great opportunities. Before even dealing with either the challenges or the opportunities the countries determined to be the “friendlies” to the United States have to change their outlook of how the US will react to incidences large and small in their own regions. Whereas in the post-Cold War world, the US was interested more in “quiet” and pet values than in anything else, no matter the interests of the United States, now US interests are at the fore.

We will take a look at Israel’s challenges and opportunities in dealing with a Trumpian foreign policy. The biggest challenge is to change the longstanding attitude of Israel towards the United States government as one that is willing to provide latitude to Israel in pursuing its own interests as long as they are not at the expense of American interests, newly developed. On the one hand there does not have to be a fear anymore each time Israel builds a new house in Jerusalem or Ariel or Kedumim, but on the other hand that does not mean that a radical annexation of the West Bank – of Judea and Samaria – necessarily works either.

But more importantly, the Israeli establishment has to understand that a Palestinian State is no longer considered in America’s interest and therefore Israel has no need to compromise its own security and its own national interests, broadly defined, in order to appease a difficult US government. Also, whereas the previous administration was willing to appease Iran and respect others who slap it in the face, the current administration has no patience for those whose policies, let alone existence, are based on a denial of the United States and its interests.

However, Trump the President and his close associates like those who take care of themselves and like those who want and do win. That is something that has been lacking in Israeli leadership as they have all, from the government to the opposition from the IDF General Staff to the heads of the Shaback, been infected with Stockholm Syndrome as they have adopted the views of their intellectual captors – the global progressive leadership centering in the halls of academia and the power centers in Washington, London and Paris. It has gotten to the point where people who have spent their entire lives literally living in the dirt so as to defeat terror aimed at their country and families have, the first time they see the wider world of good scotch and wine, of dinner parties and “proper” views on everything from the climate to gender to war and peace – and they don’t know how to be critical.

Israeli leadership and their mouthpieces in the media have been taken captive by those who have never known war, who have seen terror only on television and who are still convinced that the age of war is over – in spite of what is happening in the middle-east in Ukraine, in Africa and in the South China Sea. They all assume that the war they have been fighting their entire lives is not what is “real” – the dinner parties in London, Paris, Washington and Doha on the other hand become reality to them.

Once Israeli leaders wake up from their captivity, once they break free of the Stockholm Syndrome in which they are stuck, Israel can start to move in the direction in which the Trumpian foreign policy needs it to move. This will probably only fully happen once the leadership actually changes, but it certainly can start before that. You can see that the leaders of many of the “friendly” Arab countries – Egypt and Jordan come to mind – have also missed the point as they struggle now to come up with an alternative plan for rebuilding Gaza. They think the main issue for President Trump is rebuilding what has been destroyed rather than creating a Gaza that is no longer a terror camp and a threat to Israel and its allies. That means evicting Hamas in toto and offering and encouraging the current residents of Gaza to leave that land. It is not, as people like to joke, another Trump real estate project but rather an attempt to root out the evil that has become everyday life in Gaza.

This is an important message also for the Israeli opposition. It seems that Yair Lapid, head of the Knesset opposition wants to go to Washington to present his own plan for Gaza. When the US presidents are left wing, they need to be appeased and followed – when they are not left wing , you can try to upstage them. Lapid, once again, is talking to the wrong advisors (which is why he has dropped to single digits in some polls).

As for Israel there has to be a concentration on five areas in order to become a preeminent part of the new Trump Foreign Policy.

1. The army needs to grow in all aspects. It needs more tanks, artillery, armored personnel carriers - and it needs the soldiers in the ground forces who can man them. This means it has to stop with the exemptions that are now available to certain sectors of the population – mostly the ulta-orthodox but not only. Those who wish to send their sons and daughters only to those parts of the army that will “serve them in the future” have to understand that the world has changed. The favoritism that has engulfed the non-combat parts of the IDF and the power given to psychologists to exempt some of the privileged needs to end. The ground forces combat units have to get first choice – with the exception of those especially talented who can go to other units first.

The reserves have to grow again. At least 3 new divisions need to be formed from reservists ages 23-35 who were excused from reserve duty due to the obsession with the “small, smart army”.

2. The growth of the ground forces cannot be done at the expense of intelligence and air-force – both of which are key in any offensive and defensive operations. This means that the army has to invest more in AI, in drone warfare, in a missile force and further the superiority of the air force. There will be no victory without ground forces and no ground force victory without proper intelligence and air-power.

3. The economy has to be put on a growth path. The Finance Ministry bureaucrats are old style Keynesians and this too needs to end. While Israel cannot afford to run deficits that the US can (or can it?) it can initiate pro-growth policies that take advantage of the experience and brain-power of the people. The start up nation has to move be moved into overdrive. AI initiatives in defense, medical treatment and manufacturing must be developed. Israel needs to be able to maximize its manufacturing of military hardware with the population it has. It can’t afford to create factories like the Chinese or Indians do but needs to ramp up its automation by investing heavily in AI for things that really matter.

This includes the manufacture of munitions. Israeli engineers and entrepreneurs need to be freed of ridiculous regulations and tax laws (for example the tax on retained earnings that inexplicably made it through Netanyahu’s government) so that the economy that go into overdrive. While AI is not magic it can be irreplicable for a country with a relatively small population, such as Israel.

4. Alliances – We wrote about this many times. Israel needs to fast forward in alliances in the Eastern Mediterranean, mostly with Greece and Cyprus and strengthen its already good relationship with India. Both of these should be done with US approval as the Trump foreign policy is looking to support those who help themselves and help American interests. The alliance with the Emirates needs to be strengthened and of course, the Saudi deal needs to get done – as long as it does not harm Israel’s security interests.

5. Zionism – there has to be an unapologetic resurgence of Zionism in the country’s institutions in step with the resurgence amongst the people. That means that the goal of each governmental body has to be the furtherance of Zionist goals. The building of a successful, anti-fragile, and strong Jewish Democratic state must be the only goal of all government policies. More than that, it has to be the main goal of the Justice system in general and the prosecutors and courts in particular. There can no longer be rulings based on “promises made to the Hague”. The Hague and everything it represents – mainly antisemitism – needs to be taken out of the conversation in the Israeli legal system.

There is no doubt that Israel can meet the challenges that are presented by the new Trumpian foreign policy so long as it can free itself from the Stockholm syndrome it is currently stuck in. That is true for the government, the opposition, the IDF and other security services, the bureaucracy and the justice system.

By meeting the challenges, near limitless opportunities will appear.