Egypt, France and China

Are new Lines Being Drawn in the Middle East?

Although the Europeans have always been more anti-Israel than even the Obama administration, now that President Trump is challenging Europe to defend itself, France has taken the lead in building on their old relationships to form a western anti-Israel block. Macron, after years of pretending that Lebanon was an actual sovereign country and not a puppet of Iran has, after Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah and the fall of the Assad regime, changed direction.

The French are breaking from the US lead in the middle east and are adopting Egypt as their main ally. Macron’s France needs conflict in order to be “needed” in much the same way that the US needs quiet. When Hezbollah had Israel deterred, France was one of the two “go to” countries for “negotiations” between Israel and Iran’s main proxy but once Hezbollah was on the way out France was left out in the cold. Now Macron needs a new frontline state to prove his relevance in the middle east.

Macron visited Egypt last week, toured a hospital that had some recovering Gazans (remember, Egypt has refused even temporary asylum to Gazans when the war started – defying international law) and declared that France was ready to recognize a Palestinian state.

More important is the declaration signed between Macron and al-Sisi establishing the two countries as “strategic partners”. Egypt will now be able to purchase smart weaponry that has been blocked for several years. France has already sold Egypt advanced helicopter, helicopter-aircraft carriers, 54 advanced Rafale fighters and other offensive and defensive equipment. The current agreement will add to that Storm Shadow cruise missiles with a range of over 300 kms, air-to-air missiles that are “over the horizon” – meaning that the target does not have to be in site, AASM Hammer smart bombs and Exocet ship to ship missiles as well as other advanced naval capabilities. There are also discussions to sell Egypt advanced submarines.

China too, has been moving closer to Egypt. It is not clear that it has given up on Iran as its main middle eastern ally, but it seems to be hedging its bets. In addition to advanced arms sales to the dirt poor Arab country, China has just conducted joint air force maneuvers with them. China has sold 12 of their F-16 equivalent J-10C aircraft in addition to advanced drones. A series of their C-17 equivalent Y-20 transport planes have landed in Egypt – a sign of a massive sale of arms to Egypt.

While we know that China is looking to position itself as the superpower of choice in the Arab world what is Macron’s goal?

Is it to position France as the leader of Europe’s anti-Israel coalition? With Iran nearly out of the picture is Macron trying to be the supporter of the Sunni vise in its effort to dislodge Israel from its position of power in the middle east? France and Turkey are not on great terms, so the best place for Macron to become relevant is through Egypt. In this way, France declares its independence from Trump’s US, satisfies its Moslem voters and returns to the anti-semitic roots of the ancien regime.

How should Israel react to France’s moves? Protests against advanced arms sales to Egypt will not bear fruit. Asking the US to pressure France will also not help. Instead, Israel needs to act as the regional power it is but does not like to flaunt. Israel is not dependent on France for diplomatic let alone military cover and therefore can and ought to create red lines. Recognition of a Palestinian state would be one and certain armament sales to Egypt should be another. For the former Israel could recall its ambassador, without breaking diplomatic relations and for the latter it could enforce strong import controls and even that now infamous word – tariffs – on French goods. Israel currently has a $600 million trade deficit with France and all of the top import categories into Israel are replaceable by American or other European products (it imports $1.9b and exports 1.3b). There seems to be nothing essential that Israel imports from France and Israel’s top export categories are not integral to Israel’s economy. As an example, Israel’s top import from France, at about $200 million, is perfume, cosmetics and toiletries. As hard as it would be to give up Chanel, Israel could survive.

But the most important thing that Israel can do is to eliminate France from all discussions and negotiations that deal with Israel. This would harm Macron and his attempt to make himself relevant in the diplomatic sphere. That includes their role in Lebanon and any future role in Egypt or in what will hurt them the most – Gaza and the Palestinian issue. Israel can continue negotiating with Egypt, the United States, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc – but should walk out of any meeting in which France is present.

Regarding the increase in Chinese activity in the Mideast Israel does not have many cards to play but must follow the lead of the US. Israel is such a small market that even shutting down all trade with China will not have an effect on their economy.

What about the middle east in general? Are new lines being drawn and is the West now officially split? We know that the EU has been funding both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority and supporting their diplomatic arguments. However, when push came to shove, they towed the American line – which of course was not always good for Israel. Now however, will other EU countries follow Macron or will the EU now be split on their support for Israel? Spain, Belgium, Netherlands will certainly want to follow Macron’s France. Germany, Czech Republic and Hungary will not follow Marcon. Nor will Greece. Italy could go either way. The UK, not an EU member would be another nuclear power that goes the Palestinian way. Will France partner with China on Mideast “peace plans”?

This is not necessarily a bad thing for Israel as it will clarify to the Israeli people who Israel’s friends are. It is still difficult for many Israelis to think of the French and the British as being anti-Israel – odd, but true. The new lines, with the French and others in bed with China and Russia in the Mideast and against Israel and the US, will clarify Israel’s place in the world. It will give Israel an opportunity to free itself from concern with what is written in Le Monde and The Guardian – the post-Zionist left in Israel might not like it but the 99% will understand.