Coming Next In Israel – Part 1: Gaza

Israel will Declare Victory and Go Home

The cease fire in Lebanon is now fact, for good or for bad and as Syria heats up and turns to chaos we are seeing shifts in the regional balance of power whose end is difficult to predict. We can’t now tell If the Russians defend Asaad to the last or if they and the Turks come up with a compromise candidate or if the Iranians prevail in spite of a weakened (although not defeated) Hezbollah, or if Syria breaks up into near permanent waring factions and regions like Libya. Reports that Hezbollah is moving forces to Syria seem to be false as they are still trying to rebuild from their decimation by Israel. Iran is sending much of its Iraqi militias to fight and support Assad. Much like the geo-political confusion caused by October 7 along with Ukraine and the South China Sea, we are now heading towards something new in the middle east. Three powers are involved – Russia, Turkey and Iran - and a fourth, Israel, has much at stake.

Syria aside and with the Hezbollah deal “in the books” the question in Israel remains the same though – where to? It seems to be a perpetual question as the Israeli public and political and security leadership (or decision makers as a friend calls them – as leaders, he says, they are not) find it difficult to keep up with the changes going on in the middle east. However, the “changes” we are seeing are just more of what has been going on the middle east from time immemorial and events like that which is happening in Syria affect Israel only with the uncertainty of who the enemy is – not if there will be an enemy on the northeastern border.

For the most part I like to give my views on what “ought” to be done but since my “ought” never seems to get translated into “is” I have decided to enter the fools game of predicting what will happen. Although I would like to take credit for Trump’s statement about ‘all hell to pay’ if hostages aren’t released by Jan. 20. He must have read my post Can Trump Free the Hostages? written a month ago. In any event, that fluke aside, here are some of the “is’s” that will come our way.

My views on the current Israeli leadership, on the Israel-Hezbollah deal have been written and it seems to me that the current government and army have one last deal to make. In my view it will be their last before they end their hegemony over the Israeli public. Netanyahu’s base now doubts him again and the IDF General Staff has totally lost the confidence of the senior and junior officer corps in reserves and the regular army and their grasp on power is about to end with what I think will be their next dramatic act. Sinwar is dead, most of the pre-October 7 Hamas organized units have been “dismantled” and some of the tunnel network – no one dares to mention percentages - has been destroyed.

In spite of all of that, in spite of all the tactical gains in Gaza over the past 14 months, and in spite of controlling close to 100% of Gaza at any given time, the IDF now only controls around 30% of Gaza. This would be understandable if the forces in the field had been losing battles, but they have not lost a single one. This is due to the strategy of “I came, I saw, I conquered, I left but I will return and do it again” - or as Ceaser certainly would not have said: “veni, vidi, vici, discessi, sed revertor et facio illud “. This strategy of fighting but not winning, of making fun of the whole concept of victory was articulated by the IDF General Staff and rubberstamped by the government. Therefore, the IDF’s Head of Operations (the person responsible for the placement of forces) stated, without irony, in a an interview with the Israel Today (Yisrael Hayom) newspaper that the IDF “cannot guarantee that an October 7 will not happen again”. The fact that the first October 7 could have been prevented had the mediocrity of a Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, not given 2 or 3 common sense orders 3 hours before the attack, did not cross the mind of the man with major responsibilities in the defense of his country. I have not read that any of the senior political or military figures have called him out. Nor have I seen much criticism from the Israeli media’s storied military correspondents.

This goes to show me that the establishment, the military and political leadership of the country, has given up on any sort of real victory. More than that, they never planned on victory but only on an “improved situation” – although not improved enough to guarantee the safety of the citizens.

Due to this, in the next few weeks, before 2024 is out, Israel will agree to end the war, withdraw from Gaza and get back, most, although not all, of the hostages. On Netanyahu’s side, October 7 has not changed his view that the two prizes that will ensure his legacy are the destruction of the Iranian nuclear facilities and diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. These are goals both he and Trump see eye to eye on and he will give Trump the gift every new President wants – a world with fewer wars.

This will be Netanyahu’s housewarming gift to President Trump.

The agreement with Hamas will mirror the agreement with Hezbollah. Israel will agree to withdraw its forces from various parts of Gaza over the course of a fixed period of time and Hamas will let hostages go during those periods of withdrawal. Israel, with another side letter from the United States will, at the start, fire an any Hamas terrorist who shows his face, armed. Netanyahu will insist that the war is not over. This will show the Israeli people that this time we mean business, much as is going on now in Lebanon. A few artillery shells here and air force bombings there will go on for a few weeks, maybe months. Hamas will understand its job, much as Hezbollah does. Do not provoke enough to allow Israel to do what it doesn’t want to do – re-occupy Gaza – so that Hamas, like Hezbollah, will be able to return to the hard work of rebuilding itself for the next war. Hostages will be released, but not all of them. As for rule of Gaza, Hamas will have a part with its “technical experts” part of a “professional leadership team” of Palestinians. This will allow Netanyahu to claim that Hamas is not in control while leaving Hamas in control. UNWRA will stay as will the remaining tunnel network and all that goes with them.

However, this will be the last gasp of the current political and military leadership.

The goal of the leadership is to move the country beyond this war, hoping that the people will forget what they did – and didn’t do. By pitting themselves against each other (saving the country from Bibi/saving the country from the anti-Bibi) they are certain that people will again, buy their rhetoric. Therefore, Israel will withdraw its forces from all of Gaza, over time, and Hamas will remain in control, even if a document says they are not. Some hostages will be released but Hamas will never give up all its most valuable assets – tunnels, terror and hostages.

Part 2 will cover: Elections in 2025