China, Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan, Russia

Filling the Global Power Vacuum

While the United States still debates what its job is in the world as President Trump is pulled between the 1930’s style isolationism of Tucker Carlson and a defender of liberty like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the other would be and wanna be powers are extending their global reach.

As India and Pakistan move towards war, Turkey is moving to assert leadership in support of all (Sunni) Moslem wars and has sent a senior military delegation headed by the Director of Military Intelligence of the Turkish General Staff, to Pakistan. According to official sources they discussed “global issues” including providing support to Pakistan in any war against India.

Egypt is arming itself in what can only be assumed is a preparation for war against Israel when the opportunity comes, and has moved close to both France and China. We wrote recently about Macron’s new love affair with the Egyptian military dictatorship and about China’s joint military exercises with the Egyptian air force. That exercise in the Sinai Peninsula included a Chinese AWACs plane. China used the technology-filled AWACS in the joint exercise in a way that was a clear breach of the Israel-Egypt peace treaty. China flew planes very close to the Israel-Egypt border in order to monitor Israel’s responses to jets flying at or approaching the border. This gives Egypt invaluable information should it decide to send its own jets to attack Israel.

Turkey, in spite of their historical animosity towards Egypt as well as Erdogan’s support for the Moslem Brotherhood, enemies of the Egyptian state, has sponsored a special forces training exercise in Ankara concentrating on urban warfare and sniper fire. We long ago started to worry about the “Sunni vise” and how their hatred of Israel trumps their internal battles.

Turkey is also very involved in Africa and of course Syria, where Ergodan has become Al-Julani’s patron. They are indirectly sponsoring a war by Sunni Islamists (of which Al-Julani either still is, or was until vey recently) against the Druze in the south. This will be a test for Israel as they have promised to defend the Druze. Israeli Druze have been protesting in Israel as they feel that the Israeli military response has not been strong enough. Israel is still in the “signal” sending stage as they bombed buildings right next to Al-Julani’s presidential compound.

Iran too has not given up their attempt to be a global player. While Israel’s decimation of Hezbollah has been a major blow to the Shiite crescent that moved from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, they are still active in Africa as they and ISIS sponsor massacres of African Christians and they, along with Russia, terrorize and rob the mineral rich countries. Iran is also very active in South America in general and Venezuela in particular. To all those in the Tucker Carlson isolationist group opposed to military action to destroy Iran’s nuclear program, how ironic it will be when the next Cuban missile crisis comes from Venezuela with an Iranian nuclear weapon developed after the second nuclear agreement with Iran. One wonders if Israel and the “neo-cons” will be blamed then, too.

We haven’t even mentioned Russia who is using North Korean and possibly Chinese troops to fight in Ukraine and who have not let up on their terror campaign in Africa.

There has been much talk of an “Axis” – we have written much about it here in our blaming the Biden administration for letting it grow. But we are now seeing new alliances and cross alliances as everyone seems to be jockeying for position in a potential new world where the United States is a lesser player than it is today. That does not have to happen, but it might because it could be the choice that Americans choose.

While the Trump administration feels its way around the world it will realize that while the US makes up its mind if it wants an Obama III or a Trump II foreign policy, the power vacuum caused by Biden’s feckless foreign policy is being filled by real powers like China and wannabe powers like Turkey, Iran, Egypt and others. The current administration may decide to gamble with 1930’s isolationism - but there is a wide gulf between that and “forever wars” and the President should take notice. Other powers have and they will not wait for a decision.