An Old-New Iranian Militia

Is Iran using a Shiite militia to hit Israel directly from Iran? Or is it destabilizing Bahrain?

A militia based in Bahrain, Saraya al-Ashtar has taken responsibility for sending a suicide drone towards the southern Israeli town of Eilat.  This is the name of a Shiite militia previously not involved in hitting Israel directly.   But who are they?   According to a report by Dr. Yossi Mansruf (the PDF of the report was placed on Telegram – it is in Hebrew, if you want it, text me and I will send the link) they are a Bahraini centered militia who has tried many times to topple the monarchy in Bahrain, the last time being in 2011 when they were saved by Saudi intervention.  They are in the US list of terrorist organizations  and after many of their members were arrested and executed in Bahrain in 2018 – the leaders went to Iran where they have been ever since.

If they are still there and if they did indeed shoot the drone to Israel then Iran is using a proxy to hit Israel, but from Iran itself.  This would mean that Iran can, again, hit Israel directly from its own territory but not take actual responsibility for the attack.   This would be an incredible event where the US – and Israel – would not consider this an Iranian attack and let them off the hook, yet again.

But what if they have now returned to Bahrain and fired their drone from there?   That means that yet another front has opened in the Islamic Republic of Iran’s effort to dominate the middle east.  They have been trying to topple Bahrain for decades as approximately 55% of the Bahraini population is Shiite and it would give Iran possession of the island country on the western side of the Persian Gulf, a stones throw from Qatar.  Qatar, according to the Egyptian, UAE and Saudi governments also funds Sarahya al-Ashtar. 

Which brings us to an article in the WSJ ( U.S. Shuffles Military Assets in Middle East After Gulf Pushback) which states that the UAE has told the US that it won’t allow it to use its bases there to hit Shiite militias for fear that they will be attacked by these same militias.  The report says, “Iraq and Yemen were made off limits to attacks from aircraft based at Al Dhafra because the U.S. was slow to take action to defend the U.A.E. after it came under attack from militias in those countries in early 2022, according to the Emirati official”.    So, the US did not defend the UAE from militia attacks and in response they refused permission to the US to use bases on their territory to hit these militias. 

The US then has “shuffled military assets” out of the UAE and into Qatar.  This is the same Qatar that has the largest US military base in the middle east, that harbors Hamas leaders, that is the center (or was) of hostage negotiations, that funds and supports Al-Jazeera, the pro-terrorist global TV station and, it seems, supports a Shiite militia whose goal is to overthrow the government of their neighbor  -Bahrain. 

Qatar is a double agent extraordinaire.  They are able to hold everyone in their pocket with their largesse and double dealing from the US military to US universities from Hamas to the Israeli government to Iran.   There is one thing all the Qatari activities have in common – to sew discord in the western and conservative Islamic world.  They basically give the US military carte blanche because their close ties with Iran and their support for so many Islamist organizations gives them immunity from attacks from all sides.  Logic might say that since they want chaos they would not allow the US to hit Shiite militias from its territory, but they want assurance from all sides that they will be free from harm.  Also, they know that the Biden administration will always respond with “restraint” for fear of having the already regional conflict be obvious enough that even the editors of the NY Times will notice it.

Where are we today?  

-          We either have Iran hitting Israel from its own territory but without having to take responsibility or we have a bold attempt to put in place a group that will topple the Bahraini monarchy and give Iran another base to spread its hegemony and terror.  

-          We have the UAE who through experience does not trust the US to protect it and its resources and so restricts the American military while it creates a financial center that invites all sorts of funny money from Russia to Iran while the West all but ignores the money laundering implications.

-          This is all in addition to the multiple “minor” Iranian proxies that threaten every country in range of its firepower.

-          And the Houthis who now control a main international waterway and are threatening to cut underwater communication/internet lines.

-          Hezbollah.   We don’t have to add much more.

-          We have Hamas which now has the backing of the US Government to live and fight another day.

If current trends of appeasement continue, where will we be tomorrow?

-          A newly energetic Hamas ruling in Gaza.

-          Hostages both alive and dead under the control of Hamas as Israel has no more cards to play.

-          Israel ceding territory to Hezbollah that even the UN claims does not belong to Lebanon, in exchange for a temporary “cease fire”.

-           The West Bank Palestinian State ruled by Hamas as they aim for my living room in Kfar Saba from Qalqilya with Iranian supplied anti-tank weapons.

-          A nuclear Iran with total control over the Persian Gulf and veto power over Israeli responses to terror attacks against it.

Of course, Biden Administration policy in the Middle East is not more or less disastrous than it is in Ukraine, Africa, Indo-Pacific or South America.  

This is the world we live in.